A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."